A comparative analysis of predicted and registered economic convergence in European Union during the economic crisis

Mihaela Simionescu


The main aim of this research is to make a comparative analysis of actual and predicted GDP convergence in European Union countries over the economic crisis (2008-2013). Using the growth rate forecasts made by the European Commission, a higher degree of variation in GDP is anticipated compared to the actual values. This shows that European Commission has anticipated a higher divergence during the economic crisis compared to the registered divergence, the coefficient of variation associated to GDP per capita increasing from 55.37% in 2008 to 66.23% in 2013. According to concentration coefficicients and Lorenz curve, the actual and predicted disparities in output have grown in 2013 compared to 2008. However, a higher level of divergence was forecasted than the registered one. The divergence speed for predicted GDP rates were slowly higher (0.099%) compared to registered divergence speed (0.083%). However, Harris-Tzavalis unit root test showed in both cases that the GDP rate divergence is not significant at 5% level of significance.

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